It may take 20 years to realize all the economic benefits of the westside's explosive growth.

But immediate changes are apparent as homebuilders bulk up their workforces and suppliers scramble to keep up.

"I don't know too many people in construction who can't find a job these days,. There is plenty of work out there," said Jack Wardlaw, who with brother Jerry is building in several subdivisions, including South Godley.

Ronnie King, regional sales manager for Williams Brothers Lumber Co., in Pooler, lets the numbers do the talking.

In May 2004, the lumber yard shipped 1.7 million board feet of lumber to job sites. By May 2005, that doubled to 3.4 million.

"We've had to hire extra drivers and other personnel," King said. "It's definitely busy."

That's a familiar scenario for many in the construction and construction-supply business - down to the portable toilets dotting the job sites.

"I've had to buy more than 250 units in the last six months alone to keep up with the demand," said Tony Sinopoli, owner of Tony's Jons. "I thought it would level off at some point, but it hasn't yet."

Widening ripples

The westside boom doesn't surprise Jeffrey M. Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia's Terry College of Business.

"In fact, if anything about this surprises me, it's that the Interstate 95/16 corridor remained undeveloped for as long as it did," he said.

The economic impact that follows growth on this scale comes in stages.

"The initial beneficiaries are the construction and real estate sectors. Then, as the developments take shape, they become a substantial windfall for the various city and county government entities in the form of tax revenue," Humphreys said.

Toward the end of the process, the biggest and most lasting impact comes in terms of household spending.

"That many new homes - where once there were only trees - will make a huge difference," Humphreys said.

It doesn't end there. As rooftops rise, the area becomes increasingly attractive to big box retailers as well as smaller retailers, banks and other service-based businesses.

Super Wal-Mart and Home Depot already call South Godley home. A Sam's Club is on the way.

"At some point, every major retailer in Savannah, whether they are in the malls or downtown, is going to want some kind of westside presence," said Harry Kitchen, president of The Foxfield Co. and an early believer in the westside's potential.

"When I came to Savannah 22 years ago, the westside was dominated by factories and the ports," he said. "But, as more and more people moved to Savannah, the southside, islands and central business district began to build out."

About that same time, Braniger - the real estate arm of Union Camp Corp. and developer of The Landings - saw the possibilities.

Kitchen praised Braniger for resisting the urge to parcel out westside timberland and thus create a patchwork of business, industrial and residential development.

Braniger instead developed a master plan and worked with the cities, the airport, the Metropolitan Planning Commission and the Savannah Economic Development Authority to build crucial infrastructure such as water and sewer lines and the Pooler Parkway and other roads.

"They built in covenants and restrictions, set aside green space and donated land for schools and other public facilities," he said. "When the national builders started coming in, it was pretty clear this was going to be big."

Doing it right paid off since building giants D.R. Horton, Beazer and Centex don't go to work until extensive market studies are done and they are convinced a demand exists, Kitchen said.

Quality growth

There have been some snags.

At the new westside 911 center, opened in January and operated by the Savannah-Chatham Metropolitan Police Department, officials are working to resolve dropped call, slow response and busy signal complaints from police chiefs in Pooler, Garden City, Port Wentworth and Bloomingdale.

The growth is also likely to strain resources in all the municipalities.

Not that anyone is complaining.

Pooler Mayor Mike Lamb says one of his city's biggest expenses is additional fire and police personnel and equipment - something he calls a small price now against future payoffs.

"As people move in, businesses follow," Lamb said. "And while a good portion of our tax base comes from businesses, the biggest plus I see coming is a change in our quality of life. Our citizens are going to be able to eat and shop without leaving Pooler. It's going to allow us to bring in doctors and dentists, something that will especially benefit our seniors."

There are recreational upsides as well - bowling alleys, movie theaters and parks.

Chris Morrill, Savannah's assistant city manager, agreed.

"We're putting in the water and sewer infrastructure, but we'll get that back in tap-in fees," he said. "Our major cost is going to be building fire stations."

That could mean expenses outpace revenues - for a while.

"But as long as everyone involved stays true to the master plans, that should resolve itself," Morrill said.

As for the expense of building road and drainage systems, SEDA president Rick Winger spells relief S-P-L-O-S-T.

"Chatham County is very well-equipped to handle this growth because of the Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax," he said. "What SPLOST has wrought has been wonderful. Having the ability to put in the roads has been huge. It means we can have exponential growth that won't impact the quality of life in any other areas of the county."

Growing growth

One question remains: Can Chatham County sustain such massive growth?

"Absolutely," Winger said. "People often forget the diversity of Savannah's economy." It includes the military, regional healthcare systems, the ports and tourism.

"When you add in our manufacturing segment and the resources of six institutions of higher learning, it's easy to see how we can support strong growth," he said.

Business is booming at the ports; tourism is on the rise; both Gulfstream and JCB Inc. are ratcheting up production and adding jobs; and enrollment - especially at Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah Tech and Georgia Tech - is increasing.

Growth, Morrill said, begets growth.

"One definite benefit for the whole area is that the closer the Savannah MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) gets to a population of 1 million, the easier it will be for economic developers to sell Savannah to large companies with high-paying jobs," he said. "Any way you cut it, the long-term benefits will far outweigh the initial costs."

Developer Kitchen agrees.

"Twenty-five years from now, I see the Godley South area - with the international airport, road systems, Georgia Tech and Savannah Tech - as the center of a regional hub, that extends from Beaufort to Brunswick," he said.

"This is, without a doubt, the biggest story in Chatham County."

BY THE NUMBERS

The economic impact of current westside development over the next 20 years:*

Approximately 40,000 new homes at a midpoint price of $225,000: $9 billion

Approximate assessed value: $3.6 billion

Approximately 7 million square feet of commercial space at $175: $1.2 billion

* estimates in 2005 dollars

Hooking new residents with the 'J' factor

By Mary Carr Mayle

912.652.0324

mary.mayle@savannahnow.com

Thousands of homebuyers are flocking to Chatham County's westside.

Who are they? And where are they coming from?

Developer Harvey Gilbert has a few theories.

"It's what we call the 'J factor' - the pattern of snowbirds coming down to retire in Florida, becoming disillusioned with the congestion and other things, and hooking back up the coast into Georgia," said Gilbert, whose company is developing the Mulberry Office Park in Godley Station South. Thus, the "J" factor.

"In the last few years, the hurricanes that have devastated Florida have really accelerated that trend."

So has baby boomers buying retirement homes early.

"Retirees are staking their claims early," said Stephanie Farmer of Coldwell Banker Greater Savannah Realty. "Florida used to be the only thing they'd consider. Now Georgia, and especially coastal Georgia, is getting a lot of looks."

There are other westside wannabes, she said.

"The military market is expanding into this area - not only families from Hunter and Fort Stewart, but Marine families from Beaufort, where rising property values are pricing many of them out of the market there."

Affordable prices and amenities are also drawing young families from around the county and beyond, Farmer said.

"Builders are doing a better job of creating the total package - pool, playgrounds, clubhouses - that appeals to buyers with children," she said.

"It's definitely becoming the trendy place to be."

Which leads to a concern.

"What's important when looking at this kind of development is to be sure it's not creating a kind of shell game, moving households from one area of the county to another, while the population stays basically the same," said Jeffrey M. Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia's Terry College of Business.

So, as the westside booms, will the rest of the county suffer?

"I don't think that will ever happen," said Connie Farmer Ray, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Greater Savannah. "Savannah itself is a draw and it has a really unique quality of life - from the beach and the islands to the Historic District. That's not going to change."

Savannah's overall population growth - growth not limited to the newly annexed westside - supports that assertion.

"We're still seeing in-fill growth in the heart of the city," said Chris Morrill, Savannah's assistant city manager.

In fact, the city's tax digest grew 12 percent last year. That trend is continuing in 2005, said Savannah City Manager Michael Brown.

"About half of that is due to increased property valuations and half to new growth, mostly in the newly annexed westside areas."